Monday Morning Roundup - 11/2/09

"I firmly believe that any man's finest hour - his greatest fulfillment to all he holds dear - is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious." - Vince Lombardi

College Football Saturday

One of these days, the Iowa Hawkeyes seem bound to lose a game. Despite going 9-0 for the first time in school history, there has to be some worry coming out of Iowa City after Saturday’s victory over Indiana. At one point in the game, Iowa was down 21-7 to an Indiana team that lost 47-7 to Virginia three weeks

ago; Virginia lost on Saturday to Duke (more on Duke later). Iowa’s final three games are at home against Northwestern (a should-win game), on the road at Ohio State, and at home against rival Minnesota. The Buckeye and Gopher games are going to be tricky ones. Ohio State is going to come out firing; if they can beat Penn State next week and then beat Iowa, the Buckeyes would take home the Big Ten Championship. The Gophers, who won on Saturday on the shoulders of quarterback Adam Weber’s 417 yards and five touchdowns, would love to pull an upset that would end an unbeaten season for their fierce rivals. One way or another, it doesn’t look like Iowa’s scrappy play is going to be able to last much longer. If Ricky Stanzi had thrown five interceptions against any other team in the Big Ten, Iowa would have lost. They need to cut down on their turnovers if they still want to have a chance to reach the Rose Bowl.

The Texas Longhorns re-established themselves as one of the top teams in the country on Saturday as they laid a beating on Oklahoma State, beating them 41-14 on Saturday. The Longhorns, without a favorable strength of schedule, helped themselves immensely by beating the Cowboys be a very large margin. In a game where the computers determine your final spot in the rankings, the Longhorns win by such a large amount should help boost their value. With Iowa’s poor showing, this also should make it easy to rank Texas over Iowa. I still think that the strength of schedule could be a big determining factor in where the teams end up, but if Texas continues to play the way they did on Saturday, then they should be perfectly fine.

USC’s loss to Oregon opens the door for the Ducks to win the Pac-10 and make it to the Rose Bowl. Considering USC falls to fourth in the Pac-10, it’s hard to say whether or not they’d get an at-large bid for

a BCS game. If not, the Trojans would likely be one of the top teams to ever be in a non-BCS game. It’s

clear that this is a rebuilding year in Southern Cal. With a true freshman quarterback and a defense that lost over half of their starters from last season, it may be too soon to expect this team to be great. However, two years from now, or even next year, with a year of experience, this could be a very good squad. Give Matt Barkley an offseason to develop chemistry with his receivers and for the four new linebackers to gain experience and I’m sure we’ll be talking about the USC Trojans as one of the top teams in the country next year. For Oregon, the Ducks have done an outstanding job of rebounding after losing their opening game against Boise State as well as one of their best players in running back LeGarrette Blount. What I find interesting is the way that Boise and Oregon have played as of late; despite losing to them in the first week of the season, I could almost guarantee that the Ducks would beat the Broncos on a neutral turf right now. It’ll be interesting to see how the computers judge Boise’s win over Oregon in the computer rankings and whether or not Boise remains ranked ahead of the Ducks when the new rankings are posted.

The Virginia Tech Hokies have fallen flat on their faces the last two weeks as they’ve gone from a Top 10 team, likely ACC Champion, and likely BCS participant to a team that wishes they could be playing in New Year’s Day bowl game. Between their losses to Georgia Tech and North Carolina, the Hokies season has suddenly taken a turn for the worse. They’re currently ranked third in the Coastal division and their ranking as the 13th best team in the country figures to be gone after their second consecutive loss. The Hokies need to hope that the rest of the ACC can pull off some upsets if they want to have any chance of reaching a top bowl.

The Ole Miss Rebels and quarterback Jevan Snead might be most inconsistent and “hard-to-figure-out” team and quarterback combination in the country. Just a week after winning a great game 30-17 over a talented Arkansas team, the Rebels lost on Saturday to a worse Auburn team. This loss included a 175-yard, one touchdown, and two interception performance. For Snead, his line has been dreadful this year and his best offensive weapon in 5-7. Once he reaches the NFL, Snead should have a better supporting cast; but what if he doesn’t? This is a major cause for concern in the NFL that Snead cannot play consistently. He’s yet to settle into a groove and find a rhythm this year, and his best bet for next year may be to stay in school. He’d be one of the top rated quarterbacks in the 2011 draft, with an added year of experience, and he’d have a realistic chance of rebuilding his draft stock for next year.

The Duke Blue Devils may be one of the best stories of the 2009 season; they’re also one of the most underrated stories of the year. With a 5-3 overall record, including a 3-1 mark in the ACC, the Blue Devils

are finally for back in the conversation of at least having a decent team on the gridiron. The school, which is known for its great basketball teams, can thank head coach David Cutcliffe for the magic turn around in 2009. Cutcliffe is a former offensive coordinator who instructed both Peyton (Tennessee) and Eli Manning (Ole Miss) as their quarterbacks coach when they were in college. Cutcliffe’s outstanding offensive mind has led to offensive records set at both Tennessee and Ole Miss and has resulted in Duke’s rise to the national level of the college football world. Carried on the shoulders of quarterback Thaddeus Lewis, the underrated signal caller has thrown for 2,315 yards and 15 touchdowns so far this year; this includes an outstanding 142.3 quarterback rating. While Lewis isn’t a realistic prospect at the NFL level, I’d still suggest keeping an eye on the Duke football team the rest of the year.

NFL Sunday

Some of the best teams in the league were tested on Sunday; some came away victorious and others are back to the drawing board. We also saw two winless teams come away with their first wins of the season (more on this later).

It came, it went, and Green Bay Packers fans still want to burn Brett Favre at the stake. The Packers-

Vikings game lived up to the hype that came with such an important game. It was the type of shootout that many predicted it would be, despite a slow start by the Packers' offense. The Vikings are now a near-lock to win the NFC North and the Packers have to hope that they can secure a wildcard berth. With a 2.5 game lead, including a tie-breaker, it'd be a miracle if the Packers came back to win the division. The Vikings' offense is one of the most balanced that I've seen in the past few years. It's going to be fun to watch the Vikings and Saints compete for home field advantage the rest of the way. Both teams have the talent to win most, if not all of the rest of their games.

The Denver Broncos are in fact beatable. The Baltimore Ravens showed this on Sunday as they brought the house and physically manhandled the Broncos throughout the game. The Ravens are a very good football team, but with an extremely crowded AFC North, Baltimore may be on the outside looking in come January. With games against the New York Giants and Indianapolis in two of the next three weeks, the Denver Broncos need to rebound from this game as quickly as possible.

Indianapolis was given a run for their money on Sunday when the 49ers came to town. There’s no doubt that San Francisco is far better than their 3-4 record would suggest. Indianapolis’ offense was stalled for a good majority of the day as the Colts were only able to win 18-14. Either the Colts aren’t quite as good as we thought they were or the 49ers are one of the most underrated 3-4 teams in history. One way or another, the AFC looks like a far more wide-open conference after Denver lost to Baltimore and Indianapolis almost lost to San Francisco.

The Philadelphia Eagles, in my opinion, have emerged as the favorite to win the NFC East. Philadelphia's offense is the type of offense that can go off on any day; it's also an offense that can be as stagnant as

some of the worst offenses in the league, as the Raiders showed us. Philadelphia's dismantling of the Giants

yesterday left New York trying to figure out where to go next. The Eagles offense is clicking on all cylinders and are poised to make a run towards the playoffs. There’s a reason why I’ve had the Giants selecting California cornerback Syd’Quan Thompson in my mock draft since the season started. Their secondary, while suffering from injuries, has been their biggest weakness so far this year and is why they have not been able to compete with teams like New Orleans and Philadelphia, both powerful aerial attacks. Bringing in some help in the form of Thompson would be very helpful for this team’s defense. The loss of defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo also cannot be underestimated when looking at why the Giants are struggling.

After tomorrow night’s games, we’ll be officially half way through the season. With that, I’ve decided to project how I think the playoffs will unfold.

NFC

NFC East (winner) – Philadelphia Eagles

NFC North – Minnesota Vikings (BYE)

NFC South – New Orleans Saints (BYE – home field)

NFC West – San Francisco 49ers

Wildcard 1 – New York Giants

Wildcard 2 – Atlanta Falcons

Week 1

Philadelphia Eagles beat Atlanta Falcons

New York Giants beat San Francisco 49ers

Week 2

Minnesota Vikings beat New York Giants

New Orleans Saints beat Atlanta Falcons

Week 3

New Orleans Saints beat Minnesota Vikings

AFC

AFC East – New England Patriots (BYE)

AFC North – Cincinnati Bengals

AFC South – Indianapolis Colts (BYE – Winner)

AFC West – Denver Broncos

Wildcard 1 – Pittsburgh Steelers

Wildcard 2 – Houston Texans

Week 1

Denver Broncos beat Houston Texans

Pittsburgh Steelers beat Cincinnati Bengals

Week 2

New England Patriots beat Denver Broncos

Indianapolis Colts beat Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 3

New England Patriots beat Indianapolis Colts

Super Bowl

New England Patriots beat New Orleans Saints 41-38

NFL Draft Implications

The Rams and Titans both got their first wins of the season on Sunday, shuffling up the top of the draft order. With Tampa Bay being the only winless team so far this year, the Bucs are in position to own the first pick in the draft. With one of the worst run defenses in the league, as well as two elite defensive tackle prospects likely coming in the draft (Gerald McCoy, Ndamukong Suh), the Bucs would be smart to add the next Warren Sapp with their first pick. As of now, it’s beginning to look like St. Louis and Cleveland will be battling for the right to make Jake Locker the first quarterback taken in the 2010 Draft. With Jimmy Clausen potentially entering the draft as well as Sam Bradford, who has virtually already declared, these two quarterbacks could also fit nicely into the Top 10-15 picks with teams like Cleveland, Washington, and San Francisco potentially being in the market for a quarterback of the future. Detroit could use a top offensive or defensive tackle, while Oakland could also use an elite offensive tackle or safety help. Tennessee, in my opinion, should take the top defensive player in the board, likely McCoy, Suh, or Tennessee safety Eric Berry, who would surely be a fan favorite in Nashville.

- Minnesota wide receiver Eric Decker will have surgery to repair a Lisfranc injury in his foot, which was suffered on a first-quarter reception last week at Ohio State. He tore the ligament that held his big toe and the one next to it together, and he also tore a tendon that runs outside the big toe. Decker will not be able to work out or run for scouts before the 2010 draft and has said that he won’t feel comfortable to start running for another eight months. From the draft perspective, the injury hurts him more for his future than for the pre-draft work. Scouts have plenty of film on him and know exactly the type of player that they are getting. Not being able to work out in the offseason will almost surely rule him out of the first round discussion, but I still think that he has a chance to go in the second round. The biggest worry that I have is his future durability. The last two years Decker has been injured, which has cost him a lot of time. Coming off a major injury like this, you’d have to think that NFL scouts are going to be worried about taking a receiver who has had two injuries that have cost him at least half a season each.

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