Monday Morning Roundup - 12/07/09

 

"A man can be as great as he wants to be. If you believe in yourself and have the courage, the determination, the dedication, the competitive drive and if you are willing to sacrifice the little things in life and pay the price for the things that are worthwhile, it can be done." - Vince Lombardi

 

College Football Saturday


Where to begin? I said on Saturday night that this weekend’s games may have been one of the best days of college football that I’d ever seen. Never before have I seen so many close games and spectacular finishes. I have a lot to cover in this week’s Monday Morning Roundup, so let’s jump right into it.

It’s pretty clear that the Florida-Alabama game did not live up to the hype that many of us had for it going in. For what many considered to be the best game of this season and potentially one of the top games of the past few years, it’d be safe to say that it did not reach those expectations. Alabama certainly came to play, and it’s beyond obvious that head coach Nick Saban is one of the, if not the best head coach in college football. Alabama’s spread offense confused Florida’s defense and created mismatch problems. The loss of Carlos Dunlap (more on this later, check NFL Draft Implications) clearly did hurt the Gator pass

rush, however he alone wouldn’t have been able to cover the three-touchdown deficit that Florida lost by. I think that Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin was 100% correct when he said during College Gameday that Alabama would win because they had better coaching than Florida did; while the Gators may have been a more talented team, the Tide didn’t turn the ball over, didn’t get penalized, and Nick Saban came up with a

far better game plan. That was the difference in the game. Alabama should be considered heavy favorites in

the National Championship game, especially with the poor performance by Texas on Saturday night. As for

Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators, it was a fun ride while it lasted. They came up a game short of going for a dynasty, three championships in four years. With as many as 10 different players potentially heading to the NFL, it’s clear that the Gators may be in for a rebuilding year in 2010, similar to that of the USC Trojans this year, who lost their entire defense last year. For Tebow, he couldn’t have picked a worse stage to have a poor performance as a quarterback. Tebow threw more passes in this game than he did in any other game this year, one reason why the Gators lost. With that said, if Tebow can’t throw the ball 35 times and win a game in college, then how is he going to do it in the NFL? And if he’s going to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, then he MUST be able to do that. After Saturday’s game, there is no doubt in my mind that he is not going to be a starter in the league, and if he is, it won’t be in a pro-style system unless he makes some serious changes and lands with a team that is willing to be very patient. With how cut-throat the NFL is, coaching-wise, it’d be hard to find a patient coach like that who is willing to wait for Tebow to develop. I plan on talking extensively in my 2010 Draft Preview about Tebow’s future For Florida's bowl game, this team has a lot of distractions. I agree with what ESPN's Jesse Palmer said during the bowl preview show on Sunday night; the Gators have several players who are focused on which agent they are going to sign with and how they are going to prepare for the upcoming draft; most aren't going to be as worried about a bowl game that won't help them reach the national championship that they had their eyes set on all year. Defensive coordinator Charlie Strong also could be leaving as he's one of the top candidates for the head coach job at Louisiville. I wouldn't be surprised if the Gators came out flat against Cincinnati. If Tim Tebow wants to help keep his legacy look strong, then he better hope they don't.

For the majority of the season I’ve been saying that the Texas Longhorns are an overrated team. Despite beating just three teams ranked in the Top 25, they still have been given a chance to play in the National Championship game thanks to meaningless preseason rankings that also had Ole Miss rated as the fourth-best team in the country. The Longhorns played one of their worst games of the season against Nebraska, and outside of a kickoff out of bounds and a horse collar tackle, they would have likely lost. The Longhorns managed just 202 yards on the night, including only 18 on the ground. If they struggled this bad against Nebraska, what do you think will happen when they go up against a far superior Alabama team? This year’s National Championship game is shaping up to be a blowout.

When the college football season started, one of the first games that I watched was Cincinnati at Rutgers. Before the game, the announcers talked about how the Big East didn’t have a single team ranked in the Top 25 and how no team had established themselves yet as the team to beat in the conference. Oh, how the tides have changed. On Saturday morning, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh provided us with one of the best

games of the season, as the two teams went down to the wire with the Panthers losing by one point due to

a bad snap on an extra point. There are two points that I want to mention about this game. First, it’s clear that Bearcats’ quarterback Tony Pike is more of a project than many assume. All year I’ve been saying that Pike is a system quarterback whose success has been parallel with the success of head coach Brian Kelly and his system. Pike threw three interceptions on Saturday; he hadn’t thrown more than one in any game this year. Now is it because he faced the best defense he’s seen all year, possibly. Pike is a second-to-third round prospect who has shown that he has the tools needed to play in the NFL, he’s just going to need a year or two to learn the system at the next level and adjust to the style of play in the pros. Second, Pitt running back Dion Lewis is a fantastic player. He carried the ball a school-record 47 times for 194 yards and three touchdowns while also catching five passes for 34 yards. Lewis came into the game as one of the great under-the-radar players in college football, however he certainly had his coming out party on Saturday. He’ll enter 2010 as one of the leading contenders for the Heisman.

For anyone that saw the finish in the Fresno St.-Illinois game, what a finish! For those that didn’t see the end of the game, Fresno State was driving on Illinois and needed a touchdown to win. On the final play of the game the quarterback was hit as he was throwing the ball, the ball was deflected by a receiver and an offensive lineman ended up catching the ball and then bulldozed two yards for the game-winning touchdown. For a team like Illinois, who has certainly had their struggles over the course of this year, this is a very hard way to lose a game. This was the last game of quarterback Juice Williams’ career and could be the final game of wide receiver Arrellious Benn’s career as well, who could go in the first round if he decides to declare for the 2010 Draft. If you have a chance, go back and watch the highlights from that game. What a shootout!

This year more than ever college football could use a playoff. The thought that three undefeated teams won’t have a chance to compete for a right to play in the National Championship game, and will rather have to play in meaningless BCS games, is absurd. What separates TCU from Texas outside of playing for a conference that has more national exposure and has a conference championship game? The Horned Frogs

have a far better defense than the Longhorns, and with the way that Texas’ offense has played of late, you could argue that the two offenses could be on par. With all of the question marks surrounding this year’s bowl selection process, I hope that someone will step up in the offseason and finally make the change to a playoff system or a plus-one system, in which the first-ranked team would play the fourth, and the second and third-ranked teams would play; the winners of those two games would then play for the National Championship. The bowl games could still be the same with the plus-one, it’s just that there would be two postseason games played before those to set up who would play in each of them. This year, we would likely see new No. 1 Alabama take on Cincinnati who would move up from No. 5 to No. 4 with Florida’s loss. No. 2 Texas would then take on No. 3 TCU for the right to go to the National Championship. Now, doesn’t that seem more fair? Boise State still gets left out, but when you look at their schedule, it’s hard to make an argument for them unless the change is made to an eight-team playoff. One way or another, a change needs to be made soon.

Heisman Watch

1. Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska – In my lifetime, I have never seen a more dominant defensive tackle in college football than Ndamukong Suh has been for the Nebraska defense. The only reason that the Cornhuskers had a chance against Texas is because Suh was so relentless and hard to stop on the interior of the defensive line. Against Texas, he had 12 tackles and four sacks, stats that are unheard of from a defensive tackle. Expect to see Suh be invited to New York after his fantastic performance on Saturday night.

2. Mark Ingram RB Alabama – The Crimson Tide bulldozed the Gators on Saturday afternoon, and part of the reason was the excellent play of sophomore running back Mark Ingram. Against Florida he carried the ball 28 times for 113 yards and three touchdowns, while also adding 76 yards on two receptions through the air. Ingram has to be one of the favorites to win the award after the game he had on Saturday.

3. Toby Gerhart RB Stanford Among all the talk from the great displays on Saturday, some are forgetting about the terrific year that Stanford’s Toby Gerhart had. Gerhart carried the ball 311 times for 1,736 yards and 26 touchdowns and also caught ten passes for 149 yards. He carried the Cardinal offense on his back all year and deserves a chance to win the Heisman.

4. C.J. Spiller RB Clemson – While the Clemson Tigers weren’t able to pull off the upset over Georgia Tech, their attempt to do so certainly wasn’t without the help of running back C.J. Spiller who carried the ball 20 times for 233 yards and four touchdowns, while also catching one pass for five yards. There’s no doubt that Spiller is one of the most talented players in the country, but the reason he likely won’t win the award is because his team isn’t one of the best in the country. While that may not be fair, that’s the way it works in today’s world of college football.

5. Colt McCoy QB Texas – After his performance on Saturday night, it’s pretty obvious that McCoy doesn’t deserve the award over the other candidates, but I did need to plug someone into the last spot. McCoy had one of his worst games of the season while the entire country was watching. Not only did he hurt his Heisman chances, he also hurt his draft stock. On the night, McCoy went 20-36 (55.6%) for 184 yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions

 

NFL Sunday

The New Orleans may have more lives than any other team in the NFL. It’s amazing to think of the type of comebacks that this team has made this year. Whether it was in Miami against the Dolphins or in Washington on Sunday, both of these games were outstanding games by New Orleans. Drew Brees took

another step towards winning the league’s MVP award with his performance yesterday. To finish the year,

the Saints play at Atlanta, Dallas at home, Tampa Bay at home, and at Carolina. If Saints are able to sneak

out wins on the road, then I think that they have a good chance of going undefeated. Beating the Buccaneers at home should be a gimme, or it should if they are going to be one of the best team’s in NFL history in going undefeated. Beating the Cowboys at home doesn’t appear to be quite as difficult of a task as it did on Saturday before Dallas came out and played poorly at New York. One of the things that I was most impressed with in this game was Washington’s defense. Despite backing up a very bad offense, the Redskins offense has been the heart and soul of Washington’s team this year. Defensive coordinator Greg Blache has done a terrific job this year, and if he keeps this up he could be in line for a future head coaching job. In the 2010 the Redskins are going to have a Top 10 pick; they need to go with the best offensive lineman, or potentially a quarterback depending on how they feel about the future of Jason Campbell. If Washington had even an average offense, they’d be contenders for the playoffs. While injuries have played a role in their struggles this year, they’d still struggled significantly on offense.

The NFC East is now a giant puzzle after the Giants win over the Cowboys and the Eagles win over the Falcons. Dallas and Philadelphia are tied at the top of the division at 8-4 while the Giants are just one game back. When you look at the schedules, the Eagles really have division in their grasp if they want it. They play the Giants next week in New York and play in Dallas in Week 17; if they win both of those games then I would guess that they would win the division. Dallas still has to face San Diego and New Orleans and the Giants also have to go to Minnesota in Week 17, and while the Vikings may be resting their starters in the last week of the season, it wouldn’t make any difference if the Giants lose next week and put themselves two games out of the division again. It’s going to be a fun final four weeks.

Talk about being out-coached. The Minnesota Vikings looked like a team going through a walk-through

compared to the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday night. The Cardinals coaching staff deserves the credit for this win as they clearly had a better game plan for this game than the Vikings did. On defense, the Cardinals sent blitzes and disguised their coverages to the point where quarterback Brett Favre looked as confused as he had all year. Think about this, Adrian Peterson had 13 carries for 19 yards. That’s unheard for a team that is supposedly as dominant as the Vikings are. I also think this game proved that the Vikings also have one of the easiest schedules in the league. It’s easy to beat Chicago and Seattle; let’s see this team go on the road, face a legitimate team, and see what happens. On offense, Arizona’s blocking and quick throws helped to neutralize defensive end Jared Allen, who is by far the most valuable player on that team. As Allen goes, so does the Vikings defense, and so does the team as a whole. Running back Tim Hightower might be one of the most underrated running backs in the league when it comes to picking up blitzes; it’s no wonder why Chris Wells hasn’t been able to see the field on third downs. As a whole, this game almost takes the Vikings out of contention for home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but not completely. They are two games behind the Saints with four left to play and New Orleans hasn’t lost a game all year; it’s not looking good. As for Arizona, with San Francisco losing to Seattle, they’ve all but wrapped up the NFC West. After their performance last night, they certainly deserve it.

Three weeks ago when the Patriots lost their close game with the Colts, some said that this lose could have a domino effect on the rest of the season. Since that game, New England has gone 1-2, including losing two straight which is the result of their loss to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. The Patriots still hold a one-game lead in the division, and with a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way (Carolina, at Buffalo, Jacksonville, at Houston), they should be able to win their division and play at home in the first round of the playoffs.  However, if the Patriots want to go further than the first or second round in the playoffs, then they must get their offensive line woes figured out and also patch some holes in their defense, which has quickly become a weakness for them rather than a strength. With one first round pick and three second round picks in April (as well as two first round picks in 2011), the next two drafts are going to determine the future of the Patriots.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in one of the biggest skids for their team in recent memory. Having lost four straight including losses to Oakland and Kansas City, two of the worst teams in the league, the Steelers have all but thrown themselves into the heap of teams trying to fight their way into the playoffs via one of the two wildcard spots in the AFC. While they should win next week at Cleveland, the Steelers certainly don’t have that easy of a schedule in the season’s final four weeks, having to face Green Bay, Baltimore, and Miami, all three teams that are competing for the playoffs and are a playing a heck of a lot better than the Steelers are. As for the Raiders, where has this play been all year? Quarterback Bruce Gradkowksi has clearly rejuvenated Oakland and has turned them into a team that no one wants to play right now. While they won’t make the playoffs, and are taking themselves out of the Top 10 picks for the first time in seven years, this is the type of success that Oakland has been craving for. The NFL is at its best when the Raiders are playing well, whether anyone wants to argue or not, it’s true. Whether it’s because it’s easy to root against them, or if it’s because they are one of the most unique franchises in sports, the NFL as a whole is more fun to watch when the Raiders are playing well.

 

NFL Draft Implcations

With the recent play of Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh and Tennessee safety Eric Berry, I think that it’s become clear that these two players are going to be competing for a chance to go first overall come next April. At this point, there’s no doubt that there isn’t an elite quarterback prospect that has moved to the top of the draft, and unless Ryan Mallett decides to declare, I don’t think there will be one. Jake Locker is the top signal caller, but he’s likely not worthy of going as high as first overall, especially with how special of players Suh and Berry are. With Cleveland, St. Louis, and Tampa Bay all vying for the first overall pick, all three look like good fits for Suh and/or Berry. St. Louis and Tampa Bay could use Suh badly, while Berry would be a very good fit in Cleveland.

I’ve received word that juniors Bruce Campbell, an offensive tackle from Maryland, and Kendric Burney, a cornerback from North Carolina, are two players who are serious candidates to leave early for the NFL.  Campbell, a monster of an offensive tackle who has been said to be “the Vernon Davis of the offensive line”, has a chance to go as high as the first round if he works out well at the NFL Combine. Knowing how freakishly athletic he is, there is a very good chance of that. Burney is a talented defensive back who has five interceptions this year and nine for his career. He’s a second-to-third round prospect who could move up on draft boards if he works out well. Keep an eye on these two players.


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