Monday Morning Roundup - 9/28/09

Welcome to the brand new Draft Headquarters and the newest edition of what hopes to be a very successful series of articles here at Draft Headquarters. This being the Monday Morning Roundup, I’ve decided to combine my thoughts from the college football Saturday, the NFL Sunday, and finally what NFL Draft implications each day had for both the pro teams and the college players that they will be drafting. Without further adieu, here are my thoughts from this weekend:

College Football Saturday

What would college football be without upsets? With four of the Top 10 teams falling this past weekend, we’ve already seen enough upsets to last us the rest of the season…and it’s still September.

First off, the entire college football world held its breath last night when Heisman winning quarterback Tim Tebow was knocked out of the Gators' game against Kentucky. The injury to Tebow appeared to be a serious one. With the Gators luckily having a bye week next week before heading to LSU, I’d be very surprised if Tebow wasn’t back to take on the Tigers in Baton Rouge. This is Tebow we are talking about. The chances of him missing a game, especially one against one of their biggest rivals in LSU, is slim, especially when it could have a large impact on the national title race. From what I’ve heard, the Florida coaches have only talked to NFL scouts

about Tebow as a quarterback, and nothing more. For Tebow’s sake, I hope that isn’t true. Coming from a

Florida school that has consistently produced busts at the quarterback position in the NFL, and also coming from a spread offense that at one time featured future NFL bust Alex Smith, Tebow is going to need to prove that he can do more than lead his future team in passion and leadership, because if he isn’t the best quarterback on his team, then none of that will matter because he won’t see the field. Purely as a quarterback, I don’t think I’d consider Tebow any earlier than maybe the fourth round. However, if you factor in that he can potentially play fullback and H-Back, among other positions, in addition to his unbelievable intangibles, then I’d project him as a second or third round pick.

There was one element in the Miami vs. Virginia Tech game that gave the Hokies a tremendous advantage: the rain. A scrappy team that loves to hit you in the mouth and pound the ball on the ground, Virginia Tech’s defense and special teams are designed perfectly for a game to be played in the elements. However, an extremely fast team like the Hurricanes, which rely on their speed to beat teams, showed on Saturday that in a rainy game, they are just an average ACC team. Play that game on a clear day, and I think that we may have had a different story. However, Tech did play an excellent game and I really like what I’ve seen from running back Ryan Williams, who rushed for 150 yards and two touchdowns on 34 carries on Saturday. A physical, aggressive back, Williams fits Virginia Tech’s smash-mouth style of football perfectly. With a favorable schedule coming up, don’t be surprised if Virginia Tech ends up in another BCS game this year. As for Miami, the Hurricanes are back to the drawing board with the Oklahoma Sooners coming to town next week. While they won’t be quite as tough with Landry Jones at quarterback as opposed to Sam Bradford, you can still expect to see a great game in Miami next weekend.

The Penn State Nittany Lions entered Saturday night’s game with a path paved to the National Championship game if they could beat Iowa and Ohio State, both at home. With their loss to Iowa, the Big Ten is officially up for grabs and it’s anyone’s guess as to who will win it now. Ohio State hasn’t quite impressed me personally thus far, and Terrelle Pryor might be the most overrated quarterback in the country. Michigan, while they did upset Notre Dame, proved against Indiana that they aren’t quite as good as we originally thought (more on this later). Michigan State is out of the picture, leaving Iowa as a very realistic contender for the Big Ten title. For the Hawkeyes, I really liked what I saw from freshman running back Adam Robinson who carried the ball 19 times for 88 yards and a touchdown vs. a very tough Penn State defense. He has done a great job of replacing Shonn Greene and filling in for the injured Jewel Hampton. Minnesota’s win over Northwestern and Wisconsin’s win over Michigan State makes this coming weekend’s game at TCF Bank Stadium between the two rivals an outstanding game that could set the tempo for the rest of the season in the Big Ten. As for Minnesota…

…having watched every one of their games so far this season, there is no doubt in my mind that the Gophers’ wide receiver Eric Decker deserves to be in the conversation for not only the Fred Biletnikoff

Award (given to the top receiver in the country), but potentially the Heisman Trophy if the Minnesota Gophers can pull off an upset or two the rest of the way. With 35 receptions for 499 yards and four touchdowns through the first four games of the season, Decker has shown that, not only is he living up to the status as my top senior receiver for the 2010 draft, but also that he is capable of going up against the top cornerbacks in the nation (Syd’Quan Thompson from Cal) and producing big stats (eight catches for 119 yards and two touchdowns). Arguably the most polished receiver in college football, Decker is a physical receiver who runs excellent routes and is about as reliable of a target as you will ever find. It’s time that the national media starts to pick up on the type of season that he is having.

For the Michigan Wolverines, I think that it’ll be hard to know what to expect from them the rest of the year. Having just barely beaten Indiana at home, who some projected as the worst team in the Big Ten coming into the year, the Wolverines are another team who needs to go back to the drawing board. Indiana out-gained Michigan 467 yards to the Wolverines’372. While they were able to get by the Hoosiers, I can promise you that a display like this won’t get them past Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State. While Michigan has dazzled the nation with their impressive start, they showed just how getting too high can set you up for failure….just ask Washington who lost to Stanford a week after beating USC.

The Cal Bears might be one of the hardest teams to figure out that I’ve seen in quite awhile. They are extremely talented, however they are a far worse team on the road than they are at home. Considering they only won one game on the road last season (1-4), which was against Washington State, one of the worst team’s in the country, it comes as no surprise that they lost today at Oregon. However, I didn’t think they’d lose as bad as they did. The Bears put forth an embarrassing display as they were blown out 42-3 by the Ducks. The game next weekend at home against USC figures to be a key point in their season. They win, and they’re right back in the mix to go to the Rose Bowl as the winner of the Pac-10; they lose, and it’s just another year where Cal failed to live up to its hype.

Probably the most under-the-radar news of note this weekend has to do with Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin. The terrific sophomore quarterback will miss the rest of the season with an "isolated tear" in his ACL. Griffin, who came into college football in the same class as heralded recruit Terrelle Pryor, has outplayed the higher rated Pryor and had Baylor looking at a bowl game this season. Griffin could have a future at the next level, and for his sake, let's hope that he can overcome this injury and come back strong.

My final thought from Saturday deals with the star-studded Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Losing to Michigan was bad, and it was understandable why fans were upset. However, Saturday’s performance against Purdue was another embarrassing effort by the Irish. Barely beating a Purdue squad that lost just last week

to Northern Illinois shows that it’s time for the Charlie Weis era to come to an end after this year. Weis has shown that he can bring in talented players (Michael Floyd, Manti Te’O, etc.), but he’s yet to figure out how to coach them.  Losing to Syracuse last year and Navy and Air Force in 2007 should have shown that Weis has no business in college football and should be back in the NFL. With six of their last eight games at home, Weis figures to win enough games the rest of the way to at least make the Notre Dame faithful consider bringing him back for another year. However, if I were in the position of Notre Dame, I’d dial up Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly and offer him whatever he wants to come to South Bend and return the Fighting Irish to being one of the powers of college football. They certainly have the players to make it that far, now they just need a coach that can get them there.

NFL Sunday

If Brett Favre was attempting to get back at Ted Thompson and/or ruin his legacy with the Green Bay Packers by signing with the Minnesota Vikings, then he is surely on his way to doing so. What's amazing about Favre is that I wasn't surprised in the least bit that he made that play yesterday. As one of the biggest Favre supporters that you will find, I've seen him make the type of plays he made yesterday on several

occasions. He may not be the prettiest player, and he may throw too many interceptions, but he gets the job done, and with the game on the line, I wouldn't want to have anyone other than Brett Favre leading my team. Now, from an NFL perspective, the Vikings have to be at least a bit worried. Sure, San Francisco is a very good team, but you have to wonder how Minnesota would hold up against Philadelphia, or New York, or Atlanta, in a must-win situation. They've beaten Detroit and Cleveland in addition to winning a game yesterday that they almost lost. 3-0 looks great, but the stretch in weeks 6-8 of Baltimore at home, at Pittsburgh, and at Green Bay, specifically in Favre's return to Lambeau Field, could be a big measuring point for the 2009 Vikings squad. As of now, they can enjoy the win, but next Monday night against Green Bay isn't going to be easy, especially when the Packers see what Favre pulled yesterday.

What has happened to the Pittsburgh Steelers? Heading into their game on Sunday, the Steelers had not lost two games in a row in their last 20 games. With a 1-2 record after the season's first three weeks, the football world is shocked by the way the Steelers have fallen from greatness so quickly. Considering they barely beat Tennessee in Week 1, this team is lucky to be where they are at right now. WHO DEY!? The Cincinnati Bengals, after upsetting the Packers last weekend, proved strong enough to pull another upset this week in beating the defending Super Bowl champs. Looking back at Week 1, if the Broncos don't produce the Brandon Stokley "Immaculate Deflection", then Cincinnati would be sitting pretty at 3-0. With a strong running game and a new and improved defense, the Bengals may be a team that no one can overlook anymore. The Steelers sure won't.

Congratulations to the Detroit Lions for getting their first win since 2007. Some of the national media began to panic when Matthew Stafford didn't immediately prove to be a savior, however, patience is always key

when dealing with rookie quarterbacks, and Stafford impressed yesterday. With winnable games coming up against St. Louis (week 8), Cleveland (week 11), and Cincinnati (week 13), the Lions could put up 4-5 wins this year. As for the Washington Redskins, I thought that you could have argued last week that the

Redskins could fire head coach Jim Zorn after their poor display against St. Louis last week. However, after losing to Detroit yesterday, I can almost guarantee that Zorn is on about as thin of ice as possible and I would actually be surprised if he held onto his job this season. The Redskins, despite making big splashes this offseason by signing Albert Haynesworth and drafting Brian Orakpo, appear destine to finish with a Top 10 pick in 2010.

As of now, the New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens are the two most impressive teams that I've seen thus far in 2009 and I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up seeing the two teams square off in the Super Bowl in Miami this year, just like they did in 2001 when the Ravens beat the Giants 34-7. The Giants are an unstoppable force with a running game and defense that are nearly impossible to beat. The Ravens, under the direction of Joe Flacco and Ray Lewis, are the type of smash-mouth club that every team in the league fears playing. That'd be a very entertaining game to watch.

The media does not need to fear, Tom Brady is fine. The New England Patriots proved that it was just rust that was slowing them down early this year, and not age and injuries that had caught up with them. While they are getting older, it's clear that they are still one of the elite teams in the league. What is surprising is that the Falcons have yet to be able to establish a solid running game this season. Michael Turner has yet to break out of his early-season slump, having rushed for just 226 yards and two touchdowns on 65 carries, an average of 3.4 yards per carry; this a year after averaging 4.5 yards and rushing for 1699 yards. The Falcons should be fine, but it'll be interesting to see just how far Matt Ryan will have to carry them this season.

There's a reason that the Houston Texans have not made it to the playoffs since their inception as a franchise in 2002. Yesterday's reason for why they have yet to achieve such a feat lies squarely on the shoulders of running back Chris Brown and the coaching staff. This season the Houston coaching staff decided to name Brown the team's short-yardage and goal-line back, this despite having a second-year player in Steve Slaton who rushed for 1,282 yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie last season. At the end of yesterday's game, the Texans were at Jacksonville's goal-line, down by seven and hoping to score a

touchdown to tie the game. With Brown in the backfield, he took the handoff and fumbled at the one-yard line, literally losing the game for Houston as the ball slipped away from his grasp. Why the Texans' coaching staff thinks a career backup in Chris Brown, who didn't play a down of football last season, can shoulder the load as the team's goal-line back, where the tough yards need to be picked up, is a mystery to me and I'm sure to many fantasy football owners across the country. While I understand that the Texans felt that they needed to keep Slaton fresh and bring in a bigger back to take the blows that come with being the short-yardage back, it makes no sense why they though Brown could be that guy. The Texans also made a mistake in not drafting a player to fill this role, when there were several large backs that the team could have chosen from in 2009. Not having a big back on Sunday cost the Texans the game, which is sad because running backs tend to be a dime a dozen in the NFL.

I'll be the first to admit that I thought the Denver Broncos would be a bad team this year. While they still could head downhill, I like what I've seen thus far. They're a scrappy team that gets the job done no matter who is scoring the touchdowns, and their defense is playing outstanding under the direction of new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. However, while it's great to see head coach Josh McDaniels get off to a good start after having to deal with a large amount of adversity this past offseason, without the Brandon Stokley reception in Week 1, they'd be 2-1; they've also beaten two of the worst teams in the league in Cleveland and Oakland. Like the Minnesota Vikings, I'd like to see the Broncos beat some better teams before we say that they are a team to beat in the AFC. With their next series of games against Dallas, New England, San Diego, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh, I think that we'll have a far better idea of what to expect from them the rest of the year after their Week 9 game at home against the Steelers.

The coming out party for Pierre Thomas in 2009 is officially underway. Coming into Week 3, the Saints didn't know what they had in Thomas, who had been dealing with a knee injury for the past few weeks. With his 126 yards and two touchdowns on just 14 carries, the Saints now have their every-down back that they've lacked for quite awhile. If he can continue what he started against Buffalo yesterday, then Thomas could end up having an outstanding season. The Saints, at 3-0, are a team to be reckoned with. With Drew Brees throwing for just 172 yards and no touchdowns, and still winning by 20 points, the Saints have now proven that they aren't just the one-dimensional team that many people thought they were. With new additions Darren Sharper, Jabari Greer, and Malcolm Jenkins, new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has shown that he is one of the top defensive coordinators in the league.

The game tonight between Carolina and Dallas is a very big one for both teams. Neither team can afford to lose this game. For Carolina, as I touched on here, the Panthers appear to be headed for a very poor season if they continue to play the way that they have. Losing would put the Panthers at 0-3, with road games at Dallas, Arizona, New Orleans, the New York Jets, New England Patriots and the New York Giants, this team could be on its way to a having a pretty bad season. That's not counting some tough home games against Atlanta, Minnesota, and New Orleans. I personally think that Carolina may need this game more, however I also don't think that Dallas can afford to go 0-2 in the brand new palace that they've built in Arlington.

NFL Draft Implications

With Cleveland, St. Louis, and Tampa Bay all falling to 0-3 on Sunday, it's now certain that we've got an early race for the first pick of the 2010 Draft. All three teams are off to brutal starts and have looked absolutely awful. Cleveland has one touchdown it their last nine games, St. Louis had Kyle Boller playing for the majority of the game on Sunday, and Tampa Bay didn't get a first down until the third quarter. These three teams appear destined to among the top five teams in next April's NFL Draft. Now it's time to start projecting.

Two other teams of note in the draft order include Miami and Carolina. Miami is at 0-3, and their schedule doesn't get much easier the rest of the way. San Francisco owns the Panthers first round pick, so the 49ers will be hoping that Carolina has the down season that I'm projecting them to have.

As for players, while Jahvid Best didn't sparkle in Cal's 42-3 loss to Oregon, Best has proved that he is, without a doubt, the top running back in the nation. With Jonathan Dwyer's slow start to the year, Best has ran with the opportunity and taken advantage of his status as one of the top backs in the nation.

Here are a list of players that impressed me this weekend, and a list that failed to impress:

Pat Angerer LB Iowa - Angerer was all over the field in the Hawkeyes' victory over Penn State on Saturday night. One of the top inside linebacker prospects for 2010, Angerer should terrific instincts as well as an ability to always be around the football. If he continues to have the type of season that he is having, then I could see him going as high as the second or third round.

Eric Norwood LB South Carolina - If Eric Norwood wasn't on NFL scouts' radars before Thursday night's game against Ole Miss, then he definitely is now. With 10 tackles and two sacks on Thursday, Norwood is boosting his stock and I currently have him ranked as a second-to-third round pick. His decision to stay in school for his senior year was a very good one, considering he would have gone in the fourth or fifth round in 2009.

Jared Odrick DT Penn State - The past two weeks, Jared Odrick has really impressed me. There's a reason that I have him ranked ahead of Syracuse tackle Arthur Jones, and that's because he has shown more explosion and a tenacity to get after the ball. Jones is a solid prospect, but I've been disappointed with what I've seen so far. Jones needs to work on anticipating the snap count better and getting up field quicker. Odrick is a player who could have an excellent workout at the Combine.

Ed Dickson TE Oregon - Ed Dickson's performance against Cal on Saturday (11 catches for 148 yards and three touchdowns) has cemented him as the No. 2 senior tight end in this year's draft. An athletic player who excels as a receiver in the passing game, Dickson figures to draw plenty of interest based on his great combination of size and speed. I have him pegged as a second rounder assuming he works out well at the Combine.

Mike Johnson OG Alabama - There's a reason that I have Johnson rated as a first round pick in my mock draft. His excellent play both last season and so far this year has helped to propel the Alabama Crimson Tide into the No. 3 ranking in the nation. Johnson is an outstanding run blocker who could be an excellent addition for a run-first team like Pittsburgh, San Francisco, or Carolina.

Sergio Kindle LB/DE Texas - The hybrid defensive end for the Longhorns had his coming out party for 2009 when he erupted against Texas Tech last weekend. The explosive pass rusher is one of the quickest players off the edge that I have seen since I started Draft Headquarters in 2007. Kindle's stock is on fire and he could be a future Top 10, if not Top 5 pick in April.

Failed to Impress:

Corey Wootton DE Northwestern - The freakishly-athletic defensive end for the Wildcats clearly is not the same player that he was before he suffered his serious knee injury. While he's extremely talented, Wootton is going to need to have a very good workout at the Combine to remain as a late-first to early-second round pick.

Greg Hardy DE Ole Miss - The other top defensive end prospect in this year's senior class, Greg Hardy has also been slowed by injury this year and has struggled to make his impact felt. He was unproductive in Ole Miss' game against South Carolina on Thursday night. Between Wootton and Hardy's injuries, players like Jerry Hughes and Brandon Graham figure to help from the declining stock of the top players.

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