With the regular season in the books, the first 20 picks are set in stone, although there are two ties that will need to be sorted out at the NFL Scouting Combine with a coin flip. Here is the draft order:

1. Indianapolis Colts
2. St. Louis Rams
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. Cleveland Browns
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6. Washington Redskins
7. Jacksonville Jaguars
8/9. Carolina Panthers (coin flip)
8/9. Miami Dolphins (coin flip)
10. Buffalo Bills
11/12. Kansas City Chiefs (coin flip)
11/12. Seattle Seahawks (coin flip)
13. Arizona Cardinals
14. Dallas Cowboys
15. Philadelphia Eagles
16. New York Jets
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland Raiders)
18. San Diego Chargers
19. Chicago Bears
20. Tennessee Titans

Picks 21-32 will be determined in the playoffs

This afternoon USC quarterback Matt Barkley held a press conference to announce that he would be returning to school for his senior season. Barkley’s decision was a surprising one, following in the footsteps of Jake Locker and Andrew Luck, two underclassmen quarterbacks who decided to pass on the NFL and return for one more year.

With Barkley returning to USC, Baylor QB Robert Griffin III should see his stock rise tremendously simply from a supply and demand standpoint. There are three teams in the Top 10 (Cleveland, Washington, and Miami) who could all have a serious interest in drafting a quarterback in the first round this year. With one of the top options behind Luck off the board, Griffin now will become a player that is coveted by these such teams. Don’t count out Pete Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks from trading up from what is currently the 15th overall selection to land a quarterback.

How will this impact the other quarterbacks in 2012? I do not have a first round grade on Landry Jones of Oklahoma at this time and believe that he should still return to school to compete to be the No. 2 quarterback drafted next year behind Barkley, who should be the consensus No. 1 pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, much the same way that Luck will be this year. One player that has a lot to gain from this is Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannehill, who will still a project, has quite a bit of upside and potential, and after being a fringe first/second round pick, could have a rise into the mid-late first round similar to that of Florida State’s Christian Ponder last year. Tannehill is not as NFL-ready as Ponder was last year, however he does have higher upside that Ponder brought to Minnesota.

Barkley’s decision to return to USC should give the Trojans a legitimate chance at winning the National Championship next year, as well as producing two-to-three Top 20 picks in Barkley, receiver Robert Woods, and safety T.J. McDonald. With Woods and freshman Marqise Lee, the Trojans’ high-powered offense has the tools needed to lead Troy to another National Championship in 2012. Only time will tell if Barkley’s decision to return was the right one.

Here is a list of players that I can confirm have been invited to the 2012 Senior Bowl:

QB: Kellen Moore – Boise State
QB: Russell Wilson – Wisconsin
RB: Doug Martin – Boise State
RB: Isaiah Pead – Cincinnati
WR: Patrick Edwards – Houston
WR: T.Y. Hilton – Florida International
WR: Rishard Matthews – Nevada
WR: Brian Quick – Appalachian State
WR: Nick Toon – Wisconsin
TE: Ladarius Green – Louisiana-Lafayette
OT: James Brown – Troy
OT: Kelechi Osemele – Iowa State
OG: Johnnie Troutman – Penn State
C: David Molk – Michigan
DE: Vinny Curry – Marshall
DT: Mike Martin – Michigan
DT: Brandon Thompson – Clemson
DT: Billy Winn – Boise State
LB: Nigel Bradham – Florida State
LB: James-Michael Johnson – Nevada
LB: Sean Spence – Miami (FL)
CB: Donnie Fletcher – Boston College
CB: Leonard Johnson – Iowa State
CB: Ryan Steed – Furman
S: George Iloka – Boise State

Team W/L Opp W/L %
1. Indianapolis 1-13 .536
2. Minnesota 2-12 .567
3. St. Louis 2-12 .589
4. Jacksonville 4-10 .500
5. Cleveland 4-10 .522
6. Tampa Bay 4-10 .545
7. Washington 5-9 .469
8. Carolina 5-9 .504
9. Miami 5-9 .518
10. Buffalo 5-9 .522
11. Philadelphia 6-8 .500
12. Kansas City 6-8 .513
13. Tennessee 7-7 .464
14. Arizona 7-7 .469
15. Seattle 7-7 .509
16. San Diego 7-7 .518
17. Cincinnati (f Oak) 7-7 .518
18. New York Giants 7-7 .527
19. Chicago 7-7 .527
20. Cincinnati 8-6 .491
21. Dallas 8-6 .469
22. New York Jets 8-6 .491
23. Denver 8-6 .513
24. Cleveland (f Atl) 9-5 .473
25. Detroit 9-5 .536
26. Houston 10-4 .438
27. Baltimore 10-4 .482
28. Pittsburgh 10-4 .491
29. New England (f NO) 11-3 .438
30. San Francisco 11-3 .464
31. New England 10-4 .451
32. Green Bay 13-1 .455

With the Indianapolis Colts’ win over the Tennessee Titans this afternoon, a bag full of surprises has been opened up with the Minnesota Vikings still having a chance at securing the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. The Colts are currently 1-13 with the Vikings and St. Louis Rams tied at 2-12.

With a match up coming up in Week 17 with the 4-10 Jacksonville Jaguars, there is a chance that the Colts may not be done winning; the Colts play the 10-4 Houston Texans at home next week. Although it would seem unlikely that they could win that game, the Colts played the best today that they have all season and the Texans lost to the 5-9 Carolina Panthers as they struggled to move the ball with rookie quarterback T.J. Yates. Indianapolis winning again is not out of the question.

The Vikings face the 5-9 Washington Redskins next week followed by the 7-7 Chicago Bears. Playing in Washington, after just beating the New York Giants on the road appears to be a tough game, and playing at home against a Bears team that is scratching and clawing to make the playoffs also could result in a loss, despite the team playing with Caleb Hanie as their starting quarterback.

The Rams face two 10-3 teams to conclude the season in the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers, and appear highly unlikely to win another game this season.

In the event of a tie at 2-14 at the end of the season, the tiebreaker goes to the team with the weaker opponents’ win/loss percentage. Now, following this afternoon’s games, the three teams’ opponents’ W/L % is as follows:

Colts: 120-102 (.540) (Baltimore, Pittsburgh games still to be determined tonight and tomorrow night)

Vikings: 126-97 (.565) (San Diego, game still to be determined tonight)

Rams: 130-90 (.590) (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, San Francisco games still to be determined tonight and tomorrow night)

If the Colts win another game, and the Vikings and Rams lose out, it is not out of the question for the Vikings to land the No. 1 overall pick. At this point, the .540 – .590 gap between the Colts and Rams appears far too big to close in the final two weeks of the season, however for the Vikings, the .025 % could be closed on. The .025 % between the Vikings and Rams appears to be too big of a gap, meaning the Vikings will likely hold the first or second overall pick if they lose the last two games of the regular season.

As always, continue to check back at Draft Headquarters for more news, notes, and information on all things NFL Draft.

For interview requests, please contact me at: shawn@draftheadquarters.com

According to ESPN’s Chris Mortenson, USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil has opted to declare for the 2012 NFL Draft. My No. 3 overall player and No. 1 offensive tackle for this year’s draft, Kalil projects as a Top 5 pick in the upcoming NFL draft.

There had been previous reports that Kalil was set to return to USC, however speculation in recent days suggested that he would indeed make himself eligible for this year’s selection process. Kalil has also stated that he and USC quarterback Matt Barkley would likely form a package deal when declaring for the draft, which is why I also fully expect to see Barkley declare for the NFL now as well.

Continue to check back at Draft Headquarters for more news, notes, and information on all things NFL Draft.

With three weeks of the regular season remaining, here is how the projected 2012 NFL Draft order looks:

Team W/L Opp W/L %
1. Indianapolis 0-13 .548
2. Minnesota 2-11 .567
3. St. Louis 2-11 .582
4. Washington 4-9 .457
5/6. Jacksonville 4-9 .505
5/6. Carolina 4-9 .505
7. Miami 4-9 .524
8. Cleveland 4-9 .529
9. Tampa Bay 4-9 .538
10. Philadelphia 5-8 .490
11. Buffalo 5-8 .514
12. Kansas City 5-8 .524
13. Arizona 6-7 .462
14. Seattle 6-7 .505
15. San Diego 6-7 .534
16. Dallas 7-6 .451
17. Tennessee 7-6 .471
18. Cincinnati 7-6 .510
19/20. Chicago 7-6 .524
19/20. Cincinnati (f Oak) 4-9 .538
21. New York Giants 7-6 .510
22. Cleveland (f Atl) 8-5 .471
23. New York Jets 8-5 .486
24. Denver 8-5 .514
25. Detroit 8-5 .543
26. New England (f NO) 10-3 .442
27. New England 10-3 .447
28. San Francisco 10-3 .452
29. Baltimore 10-3 .486
30. Pittsburgh 10-3 .490
31. Houston 10-3 .433
32. Green Bay 13-0 .457

On Monday afternoon, Miami (FL) running back Lamar Miller opted to declare for the 2012 NFL Draft. Miller, a redshirt sophomore, rushed for 1,272 yards and nine touchdowns on 227 carries (5.6-yards per carry) on the season; he finished his three-year career at Miami (FL) with 1,918 yards and 15 touchdowns.

Miller is my rated as my No. 2 overall running back prospect for this year’s draft with a second round grade. At 5′11, 212 lbs, Miller offers the combination of size, strength, and speed that scouts look for in an every-down back capable of carrying the ball consistently between the tackles at the next level.

Behind only Trent Richardson of Alabama in my running back rankings, Miller could reportedly need offseason shoulder surgery, which could hamper his ability to workout at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis.

Continue to check back at Draft Headquarters for more news, notes, and information on all things NFL Draft.

According to a report in the Washington Post this weekend, Virginia Tech junior cornerback Jayron Hosley “will likely declare for the 2012 NFL Draft.” After recording nine interceptions and eight pass breakups as a sophomore, Hosley took a step back in 2011, managing to record just three interceptions with another eight pass breakups; he was also beaten deep on several plays throughout the season.

I have a second-to-third round grade on Hosley currently with much work still to do on him if he opts to declare. With his production over the past two years, his instinctive play and great ball skills are sure to draw attention from scouts this winter if he chooses to declare. It’s expected that Hosley will not make his decision official until after the Hokies’ Sugar Bowl matchup with Michigan.

Continue to check back at Draft Headquarters for more news, notes, and information on all things NFL Draft.

According to sources close to the situation, Draft Headquarters has learned that two Big Ten defensive linemen are expected to declare for the 2012 NFL Draft. Those two linemen are Illinois defensive end Whitney Mercilus and Michigan State defensive tackle Jerel Worthy.

Mercilus, who is rated as my No. 1 underclassman at the defensive end position with a second round grade, led the country in sacks in 2011 with 14.5, in addition to tallying 52 tackles, 19.5 tackles for loss, and a fabulous nine fumbles forced. Mercilus, in his first full season as a starter, is a great athlete with very high upside. With the departure of head coach Ron Zook at Illinois, Mercilus’ impending decision is not a surprising one; he will be a member of the 2012 NFL Draft class.

Worthy, rated as my No. 2 underclassman at the defensive tackle position with a late-first to early-second round grade, recorded 26 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks this season. Many scouts were expecting Worthy to have a more dominant 2011 season, however facing double-and-triple teams throughout the season resulted in the mediocre stats this year. Worthy has the makings of being a dominant defensive lineman if he can put everything together, however he still grades out as a talented project who should warrant a selection in the Top 50 picks with his expected decision to declare for the 2012 NFL Draft.

Continue to check back at Draft Headquarters for updated news, notes, and information on all things NFL Draft.